Southwest monsoon is likely to set in over Keralam around Thursday: IMD

New Delhi (India), June 2: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast that the Southwest monsoon is likely to set in over Keralam around Thursday.

The conditions are favourable for further advance of the southwest monsoon into some more parts of Lakshadweep Islands, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and the remaining parts of southeast Bay of Bengal from around 4th June.

India may receive below-normal rainfall during the month of June as the country’s weather department revised its forecast for the Southwest Monsoon 2026.

The India Meteorological Department presented the second-stage long-range forecast for the Southwest Monsoon 2026, highlighting rainfall trends, rising temperatures and evolving El Niño conditions.

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Addressing a press conference, Secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences M Ravichandran said the country is likely to receive rainfall below 92 per cent of the long-period average.

Meanwhile, evolving El Niño conditions are gradually developing over the equatorial Pacific, with climate models indicating a possible moderate to strong phase later in the monsoon season.

"During June to September 2026, the highest likelihood is for below normal seasonal rainfall over most parts of the country; except some areas over northwestern and northeastern India, eastern parts of the southern peninsula, some areas over adjoining east-central India, and a few isolated pockets over eastern India, where rainfall is likely to be normal to above normal," the IMD added

The IMD said, "Quantitatively, the southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the whole country is likely to be 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a possible model error of ±4%. This means that during the 2026 monsoon season (June to September), the highest likelihood is for below normal rainfall over the whole country."

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During the southwest monsoon season (June to September, 2026), rainfall over Northeast India (94-106% of LPA) is likely to be normal. The highest likelihood is for below normal rainfall over Central India and South Peninsular India (<94% of LPA) and Northwest India (<92% of LPA)," the IMD said.

Ends.